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Electricity Demand and Supply Forecasted
New Electricity Supply Forecasts indicate delayed generation could be a problem
The California Energy Commission has updated it’s November 2001 forecast of electricity demand and supply for years 2002 through 2005. The updated
forecast reflects the deferral of new generation due in part to low power prices and lower demand caused by energy efficiency and conservation. Nearly
half of the new generation anticipated to be on line by 2004 in the original forecast will be delayed until 2005 or beyond.
The most critical year is 2002, where demand could exceed supply if there is no voluntary conservation. In 2003 and 2004 the combination of new power
plants and demand responsive programs will meet system needs even with no voluntary conservation. (This forecast is based on summer peak
temperatures expected in one of ten years.)
The findings were presented to the Senate Energy, Utilities and Communications Committee during an informational hearing on Wednesday this week,
February 20. Representatives of the CPUC, California Power Authority, SCE and Calpine joined the CEC to discuss the electricity outlook for 2002 to
2012.
