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Oct. 29, 2008
Over the last six weeks, the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) has looked at the significant contests that will determine the makeup of the U.S. Senate in the 111th Congress. With eight Democratic candidates currently leading in seats held by Republicans, it looks certain that Democrats will increase their majority, coming close to, or potentially surpassing, 60 seats. The outcome of the Senate races is likely to have the most significant impact on manufacturers and manufacturing employees in the years ahead. Over the past two years, pro-business Democrats and Republicans have been able to use the Senates 60-vote requirement to stop a number of problematic legislative proposals from becoming law.
Below, NAM's Executive Vice President, Jay Timmons, outlines recent polls in the key Senate races. Of note, incumbent Senator Ted Stevens (R) of Alaska was convicted earlier this week on all seven counts related to failure to report $250,000 in gifts on his financial disclosure forms. While he has remained competitive in his re-election bid until recent days, it is likely his standing in the polls will drop following his guilty verdict.
* Denotes Incumbent
Alaska
45% Ted Stevens (R)*
46% Mark Begich (D)
Source: Ivan Moore Research, Oct. 17 19
Colorado
38% Bob Schaffer (R)
51% Mark Udall (D)
Source: Rocky Mountain News/News4, Oct. 21 23
Georgia
46% Saxby Chambliss (R)*
44% Jim Martin (D)
Source: InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position, Oct. 27
Kentucky
50% Mitch McConnell (R)*
43% Bruce Lunsford (D)
Source: Rasmussen, Oct. 21
Louisiana
43% John Kennedy (R)
53% Mary Landrieu (D)*
Source: Rasmussen, Oct. 21
Maine
54% Susan Collins (R)*
43% Tom Allen (D)
Source: SurveyUSA, Oct. 19 20
Minnesota
37% Norm Coleman (R)*
41% Al Franken (D)
17% Dean Barkley (I)
Source: Rasmussen, Oct. 22
Mississippi
54% Roger Wicker (R)*
43% Ronnie Musgrove (D)
Source: Rasmussen, Oct. 27
New Hampshire
38% John Sununu (R)*
49% Jeanne Shaheen (D)
Source: University of New Hampshire, Oct. 24 26
New Mexico
37% Steve Pearce (R)
57% Tom Udall (D)
Source: Rasmussen, Oct. 13
North Carolina
43% Elizabeth Dole (R)*
44% Kay Hagan (D)
Source: WSOC-TV, Oct. 20 21
Oregon
42% Gordon Smith (R)*
49% Jeff Merkley (D)
Source: SurveyUSA, Oct. 25 26
Virginia
32% Jim Gilmore (R)
63% Mark Warner (D)
Source: SurveyUSA, Oct. 25 26
The outcome of the 2008 elections will be historic and will have a significant impact on the business community. The NAM Political Team will spend Election Night at NAM Headquarters tracking state-by-state election results and they will send them out by e-mail to interested parties throughout the night. If you would like to receive up-to-the-minute results on the key races across the country, please sign up today to be added to the distribution list. Send an e-mail to Leann Paradise (lparadise@nam.org) with the e-mail address you would like us to use on Election Night.
Questions or Comments?
Contact: Teresa DeRoco
Phone or e-mail: tcupit@nam.org
www.nam.org