Chapman University Research Points to Job Growth in the State

By Loretta Macktal, Executive Assistant to the Vice President, Government Relations

Capitol Update, Feb. 13, 2004 Share this on FacebookTweet thisEmail this to a friend

California's Leading Economic Indicator Series increased to 1.97 in the first quarter of 2004, from a revised level 1.30 in the 4th quarter of 2003 according to the Chapman University's A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research. This marks the third consecutive increase in the indicator series suggesting that the pace of job formation in California should pick up appreciably in the first quarter of this year.

In addition, the Anderson Center's analysis of the historical relationship between the leading indicator series and payroll employment growth reveals that an indicator series value between 1.5 to 2.0 correlates with a payroll job growth of over 2 percent.

The indicator series is comprised of variables found to have a significant influence on California's employment growth. These variables include movements in lagged values of real GDP, real exports, the S&P 500 and the state's total construction spending. A weighted average of changes in these variables, based on their relative importance in explaining state employment growth, is used in constructing the indicator series. All four components of the indicator series have shown improvements.
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